Shabana Mahmood, the United Kingdom’s home secretary, has said the country’s asylum system is “not working” and is placing “intense strain on communities” ahead of proposals for major government reforms that would end refugees’ automatic right to settle permanently in the UK.
Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, Mahmood said undocumented migration is “tearing the country apart”.
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The government’s proposals, to be unveiled on Monday, will have two main prongs. First, they would end the automatic path to settled status for refugees after five years. And second, they would remove state benefits from those who have the right to work and can support themselves.
After a summer of fierce protests outsidehotelshousing asylum seekers and an anti-immigration march in London, Mahmood also announced new plans to curb small-boat crossings from France as well as to return refugees to their home countries once it is safe to do so.
What are the current immigration numbers?
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that net migration – the number of people entering a country minus the number leaving – had hovered around 200,000 to 300,000 people per year since 2011.
However, after Brexit was enacted in 2020, there was a large increase in the number of undocumented immigrants entering the UK. Data from the ONS showed net migration climbed to 906,000 for the 12 months to June 2023.
But more recent figures showed those numbers have fallen dramatically since then. Net migration figures dropped by more than half in 2024 – to 431,000. This was largely owing to a decrease in the number of healthcare and student visas made available last year.
Meanwhile, despite a UK media focus on people arriving in small boats from France, this group makes up a small share of the overall number of people entering the country. In 2024, for instance, the Home Office found that 36,816 people who arrived in the UK came via small boats.
In total, 108,138 people claimed asylum last year. Of those, only one-third came via small boats. As such, most claims for asylum went through formal channels (and included some dependants of those people).
Despite the falling numbers, disquiet with the ruling Labour Party remains rife. In an August YouGov poll, 38 percent of respondents said they believed Reform UK, an anti-immigration party, would be more effective at handling asylum cases than Labour, who secured just 9 percent of the tally.
What changes is the government announcing?
Access to citizenship
On Monday, the government is expected toannouncea shift from permanent settlement for refugees to a temporary-protection model.
Current rules stipulate that refugees granted asylum may remain in the UK for five years before being able to apply for an “indefinite leave to remain”, opening the door to citizenship.
But under the new plans, those who enter the UK through the asylum process could face up to 20 years before seeking permanent residency.
In addition, people granted asylum would have to renew their status every 30 months to see if the situation in their home country has changed such that UK residence is still required.
Access to social benefits
Mahmood said she intends to repeal the legal duty of the government to provide accommodation and basic financial support to all asylum seekers.
The government is expected to withdraw support from asylum seekers deemed able to work as well as from those people who commit offences, ignore removal orders or work illegally.
Asylum seekers may currently apply for permission to work if their asylum claim has been outstanding for 12 months or more and if the delay is not considered their fault.
What do refugee rights groups say?
Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council charity, said that instead of deterring migrants, the 20-year path to citizenship would “leave people in limbo and experiencing intense anxiety for many, many years”.
“We need a system that is controlled and is fair, and the way you do that is you make decisions fairly, in a timely fashion, and if someone is found to be a refugee, they go on and they contribute to our communities and they pay back,” he told the programme BBC Breakfast on Sunday.
Mahmood’s proposal for 30-month checks implies that refugees could be sent back to their home countries once the government believes conditions on the ground have improved – an approach inspired by Denmark’s much-debated policy.
Although research by the Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook has found that deterrence has limited influence on where asylum seekers travel to, a 2017 study did suggest that Denmark’s “negative branding” had led to fewer asylum applications.
How have others reacted to the proposals?
While Oxford University’s Migration Observatory said Mahmood’s overhaul would make the UK’s immigration system among the strictest countries in Europe, Matt Vickers, the opposition home office minister, said the government’s new plans to reform the asylum system contain “lots of gimmicks”.
He told the BBC that a “deterrent” is what is needed: “If people arrive in this country and know they’re going to get sent back, they won’t get in those boats in the first place.”
What other proposals is the UK government making?
Using artificial intelligence tools to assess age
The government wants to introduce artificial intelligence-based assessments to determine the age of people who arrive without documentation. Ministers said errors in the current system risk placing adults in children’s services or wrongly treating minors as adults.
Rights groups, however, warned that automated systems could entrench bias, wrongly classify children as adults and expose them to harm.
Earlier this year, Solomon told the BBC that he was “not convinced” that using AI tools was the government’s correct approach on age identification because he has concerns about children being put in unsafe situations. He added that “these [AI] technologies continue to raise serious questions about accuracy, ethics and fairness.”
Visa ban threat for three African countries
The Home Office has said visa applications from Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will be refused unless their governments improve collaboration with the UK regarding the deportation of their nationals.
In a statement, the department cited “unacceptably low cooperation and obstructive return procedures” as the reason for the potential penalty.
It said restrictions would apply “unless they agree to accept the return of their criminals and irregular migrants”.
Right to ‘family life’ claims to be checked
UK media are also reporting the government is set to limit how UK courts interpret the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in matters related to family life.
Article 8 of the ECHR, which protects the right to a family and private life, will be reinterpreted “to better reflect the expectations of the British public”, the government is expected to say.
The new law would likely clarify that a “family connection” refers to immediate relatives only, such as a parent or child, and not to extended family members.
How will Ukrainian refugees be affected?
Asked about Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion, Mahmood said they would continue to be admitted on a “bespoke scheme” but would also be expected to return once the war ends. She stressed that many arrivals from Ukraine have expressed a desire to return home.
Under the current scheme, Ukrainian refugees have the right to live in the UK for up to three years with access to healthcare, education and benefits. As these visas are temporary, Ukrainian nationals are largely exempt from the new 20‑year settlement rules for asylum seekers.
Will there be new authorised pathways for asylum seekers to come to the UK?
Apart from Ukrainians, vulnerable people from Afghanistan are provided with legal residence, access to work, education and healthcare through the UK’s Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme.
In addition, the British national overseas (BNO) visa allows Hong Kong BNO status holders and their dependents the right to live, work and study in the UK, providing a pathway to settlement and eventual citizenship.
Mahmood also told the BBC that new “safe and legal” avenues will be introduced to try to reduce the number of people attempting perilous crossings of the English Channel.
Organisations such as Amnesty International have repeatedly highlighted that restrictive policies and limited visa schemes leave many people with no option but to attempt illegal entry.
Amnesty has called on Westminster to expand legal avenues – such as resettlement schemes, family reunification and community sponsorship – to reduce people smuggling and fatalities.
One option would be to allow individuals and charities in the UK to sponsor refugees, echoing the Homes for Ukraine scheme, which endows local communities with housing responsibilities.
The aim of these schemes, which would be for a limited number of people, is to give local areas more control to improve support.
